Dinamo Zagrebvs
NEC Nijmegen
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dinamo Zagreb · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dinamo Zagreb 2-4 NEC Nijmegen
Original prediction
Dinamo Zagreb
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 64.2% | 52.7% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.69 | 20.2% | 24.7% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 6.09 | 15.6% | 22.6% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Dinamo Zagreb
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
Dinamo Zagreb has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00