Dimonavs
Hapoel Sderot
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/9/2026, 10:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dimona · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dimona 4-1 Hapoel Sderot
Original prediction
Dimona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.4% | 39.6% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.7% | 28.9% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 28.9% | 31.4% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Dimona
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Dimona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DimonaWLWWL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Hapoel SderotDLWLW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
DimonaHapoel Sderot
50.0Attack0.0
50.0Defence100.0
50.0Form33.3
50.0Power45.3
1.42xG1.16