Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dijon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dijon 1-2 Rodez
Original prediction
Dijon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 46.6% | 45.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.5% | 25.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 28.8% | 28.2% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–26%
Predicted outcome
Dijon
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Dijon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DijonLWDWW
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
RodezLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
DijonRodez
59.3Attack51.9
40.7Defence22.2
44.4Form25.9
50.5Power34.9
2.87xG1.55