Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dijon 4-2 Metz
Original prediction
Metz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 09:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 34.0% | 33.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.1% | 29.7% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 38.9% | 36.7% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Metz
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Metz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DijonDWWDL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
MetzDLWDD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
DijonMetz
47.6Attack47.6
52.4Defence66.7
42.9Form47.6
50.6Power55.3
1.11xG1.23