Desenzano Calvinavs
Lecco
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Desenzano Calvina · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Desenzano Calvina 0-0 Lecco, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Desenzano Calvina 1-3 Lecco
Original prediction
Desenzano Calvina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.9% | 36.9% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.0% | 30.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.1% | 32.3% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Projected Score
Desenzano Calvina 0–0 Lecco
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Desenzano Calvina
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Desenzano Calvina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 0.20/0.40