Desenzano Calvinavs
Giana Erminio
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/25/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Desenzano Calvina 0-0 Giana Erminio, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Desenzano Calvina 1-2 Giana Erminio
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.0% | 36.8% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.2% | 32.0% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 29.8% | 31.2% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Projected Score
Desenzano Calvina 0–0 Giana Erminio
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.0%
Model confidence
36.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Desenzano CalvinaLWWDD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Giana ErminioWDDDD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Desenzano CalvinaGiana Erminio
30.0Attack33.3
63.3Defence59.3
43.3Form29.6
47.9Power43.7
0.81xG0.68