Desenzano Calvinavs
Dolomiti Bellunesi
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/10/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Desenzano Calvina 0-0 Dolomiti Bellunesi, with an exact score probability of 32%.
Prediction record
Final result
Desenzano Calvina 2-0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.2% | 34.7% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.8% | 36.0% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 27.0% | 29.3% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Projected Score
Desenzano Calvina 0–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
Exact score probability: 32%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00