Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derthona · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derthona 1-1 Asti
Original prediction
Derthona
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 41.5% | 39.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 29.3% | 28.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 29.3% | 32.1% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Derthona
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Derthona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DerthonaLLDWW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AstiLWLDW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
DerthonaAsti
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.44xG1.23