Premier DivisionPremier Division
Friday, 3 July 2026Last updated 14:59
Derry City

Derry City

Home
L
24
Full time
Waterford

Waterford

Away
W
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
GoalVio prediction
46% confidence
Derry City(46%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: Waterford
Win probability
Derry City
46%
Draw
24%
Waterford
30%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Derry City
34
Waterford
73
Defence
Derry City
27
Waterford
66
Momentum
Derry City
0
Waterford
100
Danger (xG)
Derry City
0.90
Waterford
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Derry City)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Waterford)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Derry City)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Waterford)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Derry CityDerry City
LLWLD
WaterfordWaterford
WDWWD

Probability breakdown

46% confidence
Derry City46%
Draw24%
Waterford30%

Derry City leads with 46% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Derry City head into this in Premier Division fixture at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in mixed form (L), while Waterford arrive in mixed form (W). Derry City have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Waterford over 1 games.

Tactically, Waterford hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Derry City defence (27/100), while Derry City's attack faces a solid Waterford backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Derry City have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game at home. Waterford have been excellent on the road, winning all 2 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 3.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

Waterford have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 2 encounters, with 1 draw, averaging 5.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 2 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Derry City to win with 46% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Derry City 4614%, Draw 2370%, Waterford 3016%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Derry City 0Draws 11 Waterford
Avg goals: 5.0BTTS in 2/2
3 Jul 2026
Derry City
L24
Waterford
15 May 2026
Derry City
D22
Waterford

Recent form

Derry City

Derry City

L
vs CSKA Sofia
16 Jul 2026
12
L
vs Waterford
3 Jul 2026
24
W
vs Drogheda United
26 Jun 2026
20
L
@ Galway United
19 Jun 2026
12
D
@ Waterford
15 May 2026
22
Waterford

Waterford

W
vs Cobh Ramblers
17 Jul 2026
21
D
vs St Patrick's Athl.
10 Jul 2026
11
W
@ Derry City
3 Jul 2026
42
W
@ Dundalk
26 Jun 2026
32
D
vs Derry City
15 May 2026
22

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Derry City vs Waterford?

GoalVio's model predicts Derry City to win with 46% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Derry City vs Waterford?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Derry City vs Waterford?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Derry City vs Waterford?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more