Derry Cityvs
St Patrick's Athl.
COMPLETEDIreland · Premier Division · 10/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St Patrick's Athl. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Derry City 0-1 St Patrick's Athl., with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athl.
Original prediction
St Patrick's Athl.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.9% | 23.4% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.3% | 26.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 40.8% | 49.7% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Projected Score
Derry City 0–1 St Patrick's Athl.
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
St Patrick's Athl.
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
St Patrick's Athl. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60