Derry Cityvs
Galway United
COMPLETEDIreland · Premier Division · 9/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derry City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derry City 1-0 Galway United
Original prediction
Derry City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 56.7% | 50.7% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.6% | 23.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.69 | 19.7% | 25.8% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Derry City
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Derry City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40