Derry Cityvs
Dundalk
COMPLETEDIreland · Premier Division · 10/23/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derry City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derry City 2-1 Dundalk
Original prediction
Derry City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 52.1% | 48.4% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.5% | 24.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.95 | 23.4% | 27.4% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Derry City
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Derry City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20