Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deren · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Deren 5-2 Amtat FC
Original prediction
Deren
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.02 | 90.4% | 62.0% | -28.4 pts |
| Draw | 13.25 | 7.0% | 19.1% | 12.1 pts |
| Away | 35.50 | 2.6% | 18.9% | 16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Deren
Probability
62.0%
Model confidence
62.0%
Deren has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DerenW
GF 5 · GA 0 · avg 5.00/0.00
BTTS 0/1O2.5 1/1
Amtat FCL
GF 0 · GA 9 · avg 0.00/9.00
BTTS 0/1O2.5 1/1
DerenAmtat FC
100.0Attack0.0
100.0Defence0.0
100.0Form0.0
97.0Power7.0
3.20xG1.55