Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Derby are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Lincoln are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Derby hold a 23.8-point power-rating edge (77.3 v 53.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Derby holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Derby
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Derby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40