Derbyvs
Fleetwood Town
COMPLETEDEngland · EFL Trophy · 12/5/2023, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Derby are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Fleetwood Town are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Derby hold a 17.9-point power-rating edge (77.3 v 59.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Derby holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Derby
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Derby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80