Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bradford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Derby are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Bradford are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Bradford hold a 4.0-point power-rating edge (77.3 v 81.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Bradford holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bradford
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Bradford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60