Derby County U21vs
West Bromwich Albion U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 8/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derby County U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derby County U21 4-4 West Bromwich Albion U21
Original prediction
Derby County U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.1% | 38.5% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.1% | 27.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 36.8% | 34.0% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.75 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Derby County U21
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Derby County U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60