Derby County U21vs
Tottenham Hotspur U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tottenham Hotspur U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (8%), 1-4 (8%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derby County U21 1-3 Tottenham Hotspur U21
Original prediction
Tottenham Hotspur U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.8% | 18.4% | -16.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.3% | 15.2% | -8.1 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 42.0% | 66.4% | 24.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
24.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–38%
- 2.1–48%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Tottenham Hotspur U21
Probability
66.4%
Model confidence
66.4%
Tottenham Hotspur U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00