Derby County U21vs
Norwich City U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 10/26/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norwich City U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (6%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Derby County U21 3-4 Norwich City U21
Original prediction
Norwich City U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 17:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.4% | 37.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.6% | 22.2% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 39.1% | 40.4% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–26%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
Norwich City U21
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Norwich City U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
GF 14 · GA 11 · avg 2.80/2.20