Deportivo Recoletavs
Libertad Asuncion
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Profesional - Clausura · 10/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Libertad Asuncion · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Recoleta 1-2 Libertad Asuncion
Original prediction
Libertad Asuncion
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.16 | 22.1% | 14.7% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 24.1% | 19.9% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 53.8% | 65.5% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Libertad Asuncion
Probability
65.5%
Model confidence
65.5%
Libertad Asuncion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00