Deportivo Recoletavs
Cerro Porteno
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Profesional - Clausura · 9/3/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerro Porteno · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Recoleta 1-3 Cerro Porteno
Original prediction
Cerro Porteno
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.94 | 23.4% | 31.8% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.4% | 26.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.87 | 49.3% | 42.2% | -7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Cerro Porteno
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Cerro Porteno has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80