Deportivo Pastovs
Independiente Medellin
COMPLETEDColombia · Copa Colombia · 9/10/2026, 1:10:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente Medellin · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Pasto 1-4 Independiente Medellin
Original prediction
Independiente Medellin
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.45 | 26.6% | 33.8% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 44.1% | 36.5% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Independiente Medellin
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Independiente Medellin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80