Deportivo Paraguayovs
Mercedes
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 10/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mercedes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Deportivo Paraguayo 0-0 Mercedes, with an exact score probability of 32%.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Paraguayo 1-1 Mercedes
Original prediction
Mercedes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.94 | 23.0% | 20.4% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.80 | 32.4% | 35.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.7% | 44.0% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.80 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Projected Score
Deportivo Paraguayo 0–0 Mercedes
Exact score probability: 32%
Predicted outcome
Mercedes
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Mercedes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Deportivo ParaguayoDWLWD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MercedesWWDLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Deportivo ParaguayoMercedes
24.4Attack32.2
57.8Defence74.4
34.4Form47.8
41.4Power52.4
0.39xG0.77