Deportivo Paraguayovs
Lugano
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 9/26/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Deportivo Paraguayo 0-0 Lugano, with an exact score probability of 28%.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Paraguayo 1-1 Lugano
Original prediction
Lugano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.56 | 25.4% | 21.4% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.6% | 33.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 43.1% | 45.3% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Projected Score
Deportivo Paraguayo 0–0 Lugano
Exact score probability: 28%
Predicted outcome
Lugano
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Deportivo ParaguayoWLWDW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LuganoDDWDW
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
Deportivo ParaguayoLugano
24.1Attack36.8
57.5Defence72.4
34.5Form51.7
41.2Power55.4
0.41xG0.90