Deportivo Moronvs
San Miguel
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera Nacional · 8/30/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Moron · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Deportivo Moron 1-0 San Miguel, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Moron 2-1 San Miguel
Original prediction
Deportivo Moron
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.6% | 59.3% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 30.0% | 27.3% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.99 | 18.3% | 13.4% | -4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Projected Score
Deportivo Moron 1–0 San Miguel
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Moron
Probability
59.3%
Model confidence
59.3%
Deportivo Moron has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40