Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana
Saturday, 25 July 202623:00Last updated 10:14
Deportivo Merlo

Deportivo Merlo

Home
W
12
Full time
Villa San Carlos

Villa San Carlos

Away
L
Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium
GoalVio prediction
38% confidence
Deportivo Merlo(38%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Deportivo Merlo
38%
Draw
28%
Villa San Carlos
34%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Deportivo Merlo
94
Villa San Carlos
9
Defence
Deportivo Merlo
27
Villa San Carlos
66
Momentum
Deportivo Merlo
100
Villa San Carlos
0
Danger (xG)
Deportivo Merlo
2.70
Villa San Carlos
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Deportivo Merlo)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Villa San Carlos)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Deportivo Merlo)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Villa San Carlos)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Deportivo MerloDeportivo Merlo
WW
Villa San CarlosVilla San Carlos
LD

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
Deportivo Merlo38%
Draw28%
Villa San Carlos34%

Deportivo Merlo leads with 38% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Deportivo Merlo head into this in Primera B Metropolitana fixture at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium in mixed form (W), while Villa San Carlos arrive in mixed form (L). Deportivo Merlo have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Villa San Carlos over 1 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Deportivo Merlo's elite attack (94/100) faces a solid Villa San Carlos defence (66/100), while Villa San Carlos's attack is up against a vulnerable Deportivo Merlo backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Deportivo Merlo's favour.

Deportivo Merlo have won all 2 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game at home. Villa San Carlos have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Deportivo Merlo and Villa San Carlos in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Deportivo Merlo to win with 38% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Deportivo Merlo 3811%, Draw 2820%, Villa San Carlos 3369%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Deportivo Merlo

Deportivo Merlo

W
vs Real Pilar
14 Jul 2026
32
W
vs Deportivo Armenio
16 May 2026
32
Villa San Carlos

Villa San Carlos

L
@ Sportivo Italiano
14 Jul 2026
01
D
vs Argentino de Merlo
16 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?

GoalVio's model predicts Deportivo Merlo to win with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more