Deportivo Maldonadovs
Wanderers
COMPLETEDUruguay · Copa Uruguay · 9/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Maldonado · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Maldonado 4-1 Wanderers
Original prediction
Deportivo Maldonado
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.4% | 43.5% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.7% | 27.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.58 | 19.9% | 29.4% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Maldonado
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Deportivo Maldonado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80