Peru · Primera División · 10/25/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Garcilaso · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Original prediction
Deportivo Garcilaso
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 58.6% | 55.2% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.7% | 24.6% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 5.19 | 17.8% | 20.1% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Garcilaso
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Deportivo Garcilaso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80