Deportiva Venadosvs
Celaya
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 9/26/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportiva Venados 2-2 Celaya
Original prediction
Celaya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 31.9% | 36.2% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.8% | 27.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 40.3% | 36.2% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80