Deportes Santa Cruzvs
San Marcos de Arica
COMPLETEDChile · Primera B · 10/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Marcos de Arica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Deportes Santa Cruz 0-1 San Marcos de Arica, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportes Santa Cruz 1-2 San Marcos de Arica
Original prediction
San Marcos de Arica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 35.3% | 30.0% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 29.0% | 30.4% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.7% | 39.6% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Projected Score
Deportes Santa Cruz 0–1 San Marcos de Arica
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
San Marcos de Arica
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
San Marcos de Arica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40