Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Depor FC 0-0 Tigres FC, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Depor FC 0-3 Tigres FC
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 32.8% | 28.7% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.7% | 33.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 35.5% | 38.1% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Projected Score
Depor FC 0–0 Tigres FC
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.2%
Model confidence
38.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Depor FCWWWWL
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Tigres FCDWLWW
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Depor FCTigres FC
34.8Attack31.0
53.6Defence71.3
33.3Form43.7
42.7Power50.4
0.63xG0.81