Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bogota FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Depor FC 0-0 Bogota FC, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Depor FC 2-1 Bogota FC
Original prediction
Bogota FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 33.6% | 26.1% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.7% | 32.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 36.8% | 41.7% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Projected Score
Depor FC 0–0 Bogota FC
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Bogota FC
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Bogota FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Depor FCLDDLL
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Bogota FCWLLDL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Depor FCBogota FC
28.1Attack28.2
45.6Defence66.7
19.3Form42.3
34.1Power48.4
0.57xG0.88