Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Denmark · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Denmark 2-0 Wales
Original prediction
Denmark
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 67.5% | 45.6% | -21.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.86 | 19.5% | 26.6% | 7.2 pts |
| Away | 7.23 | 13.1% | 27.8% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Denmark
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Denmark has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DenmarkLWDWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
WalesLLDDL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
DenmarkWales
66.7Attack0.0
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form0.0
23.7Power23.7
1.32xG1.12