Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portugal · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Denmark 2-4 Portugal
Original prediction
Portugal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.47 | 27.2% | 32.7% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.8% | 27.7% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 46.9% | 39.5% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Portugal
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Portugal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DenmarkWLWDW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PortugalWWWWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DenmarkPortugal
66.7Attack50.0
50.0Defence83.3
50.0Form100.0
56.2Power83.3
1.23xG1.32