Dendervs
Seraing United
COMPLETEDBelgium · Challenger Pro League · 9/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dender · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dender 2-0 Seraing United
Original prediction
Dender
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 58.5% | 52.8% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.5% | 25.0% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 5.07 | 18.0% | 22.1% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Dender
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Dender has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40