Denbigh Townvs
Bala Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/11/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bala Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Denbigh Town 5-2 Bala Town
Original prediction
Bala Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.29 | 21.1% | 20.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.11 | 22.0% | 20.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 56.9% | 59.5% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Bala Town
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Bala Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80