Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Den Bosch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Den Bosch 1-4 Vitesse
Original prediction
Den Bosch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 33.9% | 43.1% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 24.0% | 24.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 42.1% | 32.7% | -9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Den Bosch
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Den Bosch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Den BoschWLDWW
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
VitesseLWDLD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Den BoschVitesse
88.9Attack44.4
33.3Defence44.4
44.4Form44.4
54.9Power45.9
2.17xG1.52