Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Den Bosch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Den Bosch 2-2 MVV
Original prediction
Den Bosch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 54.1% | 51.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 22.8% | 23.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 23.1% | 25.2% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.06 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Den Bosch
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Den Bosch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Den BoschWWDLW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MVVLLLWL
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Den BoschMVV
48.5Attack42.4
42.4Defence24.2
42.4Form48.5
46.4Power41.2
2.41xG1.35