Den Boschvs
Helmond Sport
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Helmond Sport · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Den Bosch 2-1 Helmond Sport
Original prediction
Helmond Sport
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 51.0% | 34.7% | -16.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.2% | 21.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.59 | 25.8% | 43.8% | 18.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Helmond Sport
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Helmond Sport has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80