Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Den Bosch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Den Bosch 2-1 FC OSS
Original prediction
Den Bosch
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 56.4% | 40.2% | -16.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.9% | 23.6% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.28 | 21.7% | 36.2% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Den Bosch
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Den Bosch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Den BoschWDLWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
FC OSSWWLWL
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Den BoschFC OSS
46.7Attack50.0
40.0Defence50.0
36.7Form40.0
43.0Power47.0
1.51xG1.69