Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Den Bosch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Den Bosch 1-1 Dordrecht
Original prediction
Den Bosch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 48.7% | 48.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.5% | 22.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 27.8% | 29.2% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.95 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Den Bosch
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Den Bosch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Den BoschLWLLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DordrechtWLLLL
GF 8 · GA 19 · avg 1.60/3.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Den BoschDordrecht
50.0Attack50.0
29.2Defence4.2
29.2Form29.2
37.9Power31.2
2.62xG1.85