Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilirija · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Dekani 1-0 Ilirija
Original prediction
Ilirija
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 39.4% | 33.3% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 28.8% | 29.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 31.8% | 37.6% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Ilirija
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Ilirija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DekaniWDDDL
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
IlirijaWLDLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
DekaniIlirija
44.4Attack66.7
48.9Defence100.0
36.7Form100.0
44.6Power88.7
1.19xG1.63