Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dečić · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Dečić 1-0 Mornar, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Dečić 1-1 Mornar
Original prediction
Dečić
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 39.6% | 48.3% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.3% | 28.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.1% | 23.5% | -6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.99 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Projected Score
Dečić 1–0 Mornar
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Dečić
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Dečić has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
DečićLDLWW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MornarLLWDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
DečićMornar
50.9Attack0.0
75.0Defence66.7
64.8Form0.0
64.4Power23.7
1.54xG0.49