Argentina · Torneo Federal A · 9/13/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Defensores de Vilelas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Defensores de Vilelas 0-0 Independiente De Chivilcoy, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Defensores de Vilelas 2-0 Independiente De Chivilcoy
Original prediction
Defensores de Vilelas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 62.6% | 47.3% | -15.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.1% | 27.9% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 6.29 | 14.3% | 24.8% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.3 pts
Projected Score
Defensores de Vilelas 0–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Defensores de Vilelas
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Defensores de Vilelas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40