Defensores De Belgranovs
Ferro Carril Oeste
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera Nacional · 9/27/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Defensores De Belgrano 0-0 Ferro Carril Oeste, with an exact score probability of 34%.
Prediction record
Final result
Defensores De Belgrano 0-1 Ferro Carril Oeste
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.8% | 26.3% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.57 | 35.6% | 37.7% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 30.7% | 36.0% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Projected Score
Defensores De Belgrano 0–0 Ferro Carril Oeste
Exact score probability: 34%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40