Defensor Sportingvs
Danubio
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 3/7/2023, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Defensor Sporting are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Danubio are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Danubio hold a 22.9-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 46.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.2% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80