GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 4/11/2026, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Defensor Sporting are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Boston River are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Defensor Sporting hold a 5.4-point power-rating edge (48.1 v 42.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.5% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

47.5%

Model confidence

47.5%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Defensor SportingLDDWL

GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Boston RiverLWWLW

GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Defensor SportingBoston River
27.5Attack29.2
69.6Defence56.9
39.1Form36.1
48.1Power42.7
0.77xG0.48
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