Defensa Y Justiciavs
San Lorenzo
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 10/3/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Defensa Y Justicia 0-0 San Lorenzo, with an exact score probability of 29%.
Prediction record
Final result
Defensa Y Justicia 3-0 San Lorenzo
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 44.8% | 40.1% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 31.4% | 34.9% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 23.8% | 25.0% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Projected Score
Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 San Lorenzo
Exact score probability: 29%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.9%
Model confidence
40.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80