GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 6/30/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Defensa Y Justicia · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Defensa Y Justicia are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Millonarios are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Defensa Y Justicia hold a 9.5-point power-rating edge (65.1 v 55.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Defensa Y Justicia holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Defensa Y Justicia

Probability

47.3%

Model confidence

47.3%

Defensa Y Justicia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Defensa Y JusticiaLLWWD

GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MillonariosDDWLL

GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Defensa Y JusticiaMillonarios
58.3Attack47.6
61.1Defence61.9
72.2Form52.4
65.1Power55.6
1.55xG0.96
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