Argentina · Reserve League · 9/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Defensa y Justicia Res. · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Defensa y Justicia Res. 4-0 Independiente Riva. Res.
Original prediction
Defensa y Justicia Res.
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.2% | 48.4% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.0% | 26.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.61 | 24.8% | 25.3% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Defensa y Justicia Res.
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Defensa y Justicia Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40